A comparison of three vulnerability models for the onset of substance use in a high-risk sample

Objective: The purpose of this prospective study was to compare the following three vulnerability models for early-onset substance use in a high-risk sample: the deviance proneness model, the negative affect regulation model, and a comprehensive model including both delinquency and negative affect. Method: The sample included 249 15- to 19-year-old adolescents (57% children of alcoholics) and their fathers, all of whom were seen at follow-up 5 years later. At both times of measurement, participants completed a clinical psychiatric interview and a battery of self-report questionnaires assessing temperament, negative affect, delinquency, and substance use. Results: Although all of the models fit the data well, the deviance proneness model was parsimonious and provided the best fit. Delinquency played a significant mediating role, whereas negative affect did not. Moreover, negative affect and delinquency were not significantly related to one another. Conclusions: Results from this study suggest that the deviance proneness model may be a more useful theoretical framework than the negative affect regulation model or a comprehensive model when examining the onset of substance use, particularly in a high-risk sample.