期刊
JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL PLANNING AND INFERENCE
卷 139, 期 3, 页码 1221-1239出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2008.07.019
关键词
Computer simulator; Emulator; Model inadequacy; Structural error; Thermohaline circulation (THC); Model design
资金
- EPSRC [EP/D063485/1, EP/D048893/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [EP/D063485/1, EP/D048893/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- Natural Environment Research Council [NER/T/S/2002/00450, NER/T/S/2002/00987] Funding Source: researchfish
We describe ail approach, termed reified analysis, for linking the behaviour of mathematical models with inferences about the physical systems which the models represent. We describe the logical basis for the approach, based oil coherent assessment of the implications of deficiencies in the mathematical model. We show how the statistical analysis may be carried out by specifying stochastic relationships between the model that we have, improved versions of the model that we might construct, and the system itself. We illustrate our approach with an example concerning the potential shutdown of the Thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. (C) 2008 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.
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