A Point-by-Point Analysis of Performance in a Fencing Match: Psychological Processes Associated With Winning and Losing Streaks

This study aimed to revisit the complex nature of serial dependency of performance during a match, examining the prospective associations between psychological processes and subsequent performance at the within-person level of analysis, and explore whether psychological processes are associated with the likelihood of winning series of points. A process-oriented sequential approach was used with 16 elite fencers during a simulated competition. Multilevel regression analyses revealed that serial dependency of performance fluctuates within a match. Results of a Bayesian multilevel structural equation model showed that prior performance subsequently influenced psychological processes. Although psychological processes did not predict performance in the subsequent point, successive winnings were associated with higher perceived control and task-oriented coping and lower negative affectivity compared with both losing streaks and nonstreaks. Overall, serial dependencies of performance are nonstationary during a match whereas psychological processes significantly differ in episodes of winning after winning versus losing after losing.