期刊
JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY
卷 14, 期 1, 页码 27-51出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10950-009-9175-x
关键词
Seismic hazard; Strong earthquakes; Probability; Italy
We develop new approaches to calculating 30-year probabilities for occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in Italy. Geodetic techniques and finite-element modelling, aimed to reproduce a large amount of neotectonic data using thin-shell finite element, are used to separately calculate the expected seismicity rates inside seismogenic areas (polygons containing mapped faults and/or suspected or modelled faults). Thirty-year earthquake probabilities obtained from the two approaches show similarities in most of Italy: the largest probabilities are found in the southern Apennines, where they reach values between 10% and 20% for earthquakes of M (W) a parts per thousand yenaEuro parts per thousand 6.0, and lower than 10% for events with an M (W) a parts per thousand yenaEuro parts per thousand 6.5.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据