期刊
PHYSICAL REVIEW E
卷 91, 期 2, 页码 -出版社
AMER PHYSICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.91.022806
关键词
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资金
- Seoul National University research grant in the form of Brain Fusion project
- National Research Foundation of Korea [2010-0015066, 2014-069005]
- National Research Foundation of Korea [2014R1A3A2069005] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
Recently large-scale cascading failures in complex systems have garnered substantial attention. Such extreme events have been treated as an integral part of self-organized criticality (SOC). Recent empirical work has suggested that some extreme events systematically deviate from the SOC paradigm, requiring a different theoretical framework. We shed additional theoretical light on this possibility by studying financial crisis. We build our model of financial crisis on the well-known forest fire model in scale-free networks. Our analysis shows a nontrivial scaling feature indicating supercritical behavior, which is independent of system size. Extreme events in the supercritical state result from bursting of a fat bubble, seeds of which are sown by a protracted period of a benign financial environment with few shocks. Our findings suggest that policymakers can control the magnitude of financial meltdowns by keeping the economy operating within reasonable duration of a benign environment.
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