Drought mitigation through long-term operation of reservoirs: Case study

Dealing with climate variability in a river basin presents many challenges in managing a water resources system. Occurrence of severe and persistent droughts deplete reservoirs storage to critical levels, which may lead to future water supply disaster. This paper illustrates certain benefits of using long-lead streamflow forecasts as well as restriction rules for reservoir operation to help manage the water resources system in the Zayandeh-rud River Basin in Iran. An approach is developed for activating restrictions on allocating water to agricultural demands during a drought and predicting low flow regimes using long-lead forecasts. The long-lead forecasts could utilize valuable hydroclimatic information such as the El-Nino southern Oscillation and northern Atlantic Oscillation to predict seasonal streamflow values. Hedging rules for optimal water supply releases is developed based on the benefit functions of release and carryover storage at each agricultural season. Hedging rules are triggered by different levels of drought indices determined by the predicted water availability at the beginning of each agricultural season. The method is used on an historical data set of hydroclimatic variables of the system to simulate the real time operation of the Zayandeh-rud Reservoir. The utility of the method is demonstrated for operating the Zayandeh-rud Reservoir from the drought mitigation point of view. Furthermore, the proposed model is compared to a stochastic dynamic programming model by investigating different indices such as drought duration, drought severity, drought loss, and reliability of agricultural water demands allocation. The results indicate that the use of the proposed approach can significantly reduce the vulnerability of the system during hydrological droughts and increases the long-term benefits of agricultural water demand allocation.