Identifying cardiovascular disease risk and outcome: use of the plasma triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration ratio versus metabolic syndrome criteria

Background Metabolic syndrome (MetS) has been shown to predict both risk and CVD events. We have identified sex-specific values for the triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio associated with an unfavourable cardio-metabolic risk profile, but it is not known whether it also predicts CVD outcome. Methods To quantify risk for CVD outcomes associated with a high TG/HDL-C ratio and to compare this risk with that predicted using MetS, a population longitudinal prospective observational study was performed in Rauch City, Buenos Aires, Argentina. In 2003 surveys were performed on a population random sample of 926 inhabitants. In 2012, 527 women and 269 men were surveyed again in search of new CVD events. The first CVD event was the primary endpoint. Relative risks for CVD events between individuals above and below the TG/HDL-C cut-points, and with or without MetS, were estimated using Cox proportional hazard. Main Outcome The first CVD event was the primary endpoint. Relative risks for CVD events between individuals above and below the TG/HDL-C cut-points, and with or without MetS, were estimated using Cox proportional hazard. Results The number of subjects deemed at high' CVD risk on the basis of an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio (30%) or having the MetS (35%) was relatively comparable. The unadjusted hazard risk was significantly increased when comparing high' versus low' risk groups no matter which criteria was used, although it was somewhat higher in those with the MetS (HR=3.17, 95% CI:1.795.60 vs. 2.16, 95% CI:1.243.75). However, this difference essentially disappeared when adjusted for sex and age (HR=2.09, 95% CI:1.183.72 vs. 2.01, 95% CI:1.143.50 for MetS and TG/HDL-C respectively). Conclusions An elevated TG/HDL-C ratio appears to be just as effective as the MetS diagnosis in predicting the development of CVD.