Forecasting Reference Evapotranspiration Using Retrospective Forecast Analogs in the Southeastern United States

Accurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is needed for determining agricultural water demand and reservoir losses and driving hydrologic simulation models. This study was conducted to explore the application of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP's) Global Forecast System (GFS) retrospective forecast (reforecast) dataset combined with the NCEP-U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Reanalysis 2 dataset (R2) to forecast ET0 in the southeastern United States using a forecast analog approach. Seven approaches of estimating ET0 using the Penman-Monteith (PM) and Thornthwaite equations were evaluated by substitution of climatological mean values of variables or by bias correcting variables including solar radiation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature using the R2 dataset. The skill of both terciles and extremes (10th and 90th percentiles) were evaluated. Overall, for the ET0 forecast approaches that combined R2 solar radiation with temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed from GFS, the reforecasts produced higher skill than methods that estimated parameters using GFS the reforecasts data only. The primary increase in skill was due to the use of relative humidity from the GFS reforecasts and long-term climatological mean values of solar radiation from the R-2 dataset, indicating its importance in forecasting ET0 in the region. While the five categorical forecasts were skillful, the skill of upper and lower tercile forecasts was greater than that of lower and upper extreme forecasts and middle tercile forecasts. Most of the forecasts were skillful in the first 5 lead days.