A Comparison of Australian Open Water Body Evaporation Trends for Current and Future Climates Estimated from Class A Evaporation Pans and General Circulation Models

Trends of decreasing pan evaporation around the world have renewed interest in evaporation and its behavior in a warming world. Observed pan evaporation around Australia has been modeled to attribute changes in its constituent variables. It is found that wind speed decreases have generally led to decreases in pan evaporation. Trends were also calculated from reanalysis and general circulation model (GCM) outputs. The reanalysis reflected the general pattern and magnitude of the observed station trends across Australia. However, unlike the station trends, the reanalysis trends are mainly driven by vapor pressure deficit changes than wind speed changes. Some of the GCMs modeled the trends well, but most showed an average positive trend for Australia. Half the GCMs analyzed show increasing wind speed trends, and most show larger changes in vapor pressure deficit than would be expected based on the station data. Future changes to open water body evaporation have also been assessed using projections for two emission scenarios. Averaged across Australia, the models show a 5% increase in open water body evaporation by 2070 compared to 1990 levels. There is considerable variability in the model projections, particularly for the aerodynamic component of evaporation. Assumptions of increases in evaporation in a warming world need to be considered in light of the variability in the parameters that affect evaporation.