An assessment of the stationarity of climate and stream flow in watersheds of the Colorado River Basin

Several studies drawing upon general circulation models have investigated the potential impacts of future climate change on precipitation and runoff to stream flow in the southwest United States, suggesting reduced runoff in response to increasing temperatures and less precipitation. With the hydroclimatic changes considered to be underway, water management professionals have been counseled to abandon historical assumptions of stationarity in the natural systems governing surface water replenishments. Stationarity is predicated upon an assumption that the generating process is in equilibrium around an underlying mean and that variance remains constant over time. The implications of a more arid future are significant for surface water resources in the semi-arid Colorado River Basin (CRB). To examine the evidence of forthcoming change, eight sub-basins were identified for this study having unregulated runoff to stream flow gages, providing a 22% spatial sampling of the CRB. Their long-term record of surface temperature and precipitation along with corresponding gage records were evaluated with time series analysis methods and testing criteria established per statistical definitions of stationarity. Statistically significant temperature increases in all sub-basins were found, with persistently non-stationary time series in the recent record relative to the earlier historical record. However, tests of precipitation and runoff did not reveal persistent reductions, indicating that they remain stationary processes. Their transitions through periods of drought and excess have been characterized, with precipitation and stream flows found to be currently close to their long-term average. The evidence also indicates that resolving precipitation and runoff trends amidst natural modes of variability will be challenging and unlikely within the next several decades. Abandonment of stationarity assumptions for the CRB is not necessarily supported by the evidence, making it premature to discard its historical record as an instrument by which to assess sustainability of water resource systems. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.