A geomorphology-based ANFIS model for multi-station modeling of rainfall-runoff process

This paper demonstrates the potential use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques for predicting daily runoff at multiple gauging stations. Uncertainty and complexity of the rainfall-runoff process due to its variability in space and time in one hand and lack of historical data on the other hand, cause difficulties in the spatiotemporal modeling of the process. In this paper, an Integrated Geomorphological Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (IGANFIS) model conjugated with C-means clustering algorithm was used for rainfall-runoff modeling at multiple stations of the Eel River watershed, California. The proposed model could be used for predicting runoff in the stations with lack of data or any sub-basin within the watershed because of employing the spatial and temporal variables of the sub-basins as the model inputs. This ability of the integrated model for spatiotemporal modeling of the process was examined through the cross validation technique for a station. In this way, different ANFIS structures were trained using Sugeno algorithm in order to estimate daily discharge values at different stations. In order to improve the model efficiency, the input data were then classified into some clusters by the means of fuzzy C-means (FCMs) method. The goodness-of-fit measures support the gainful use of the IGANFIS and FCM methods in spatiotemporal modeling of hydrological processes. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.