期刊
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
卷 498, 期 -, 页码 46-58出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.06.007
关键词
Runoff-erosion model; Sediment yield; Dam storage; Climate forecast; Regional model; Downscaling
资金
- Science and Technology Ministry - CTHidro CHB: FINEP [142475/2004-1]
- Science and Technology Ministry - SegHidro Project: FINEP/CT-INFO [01.04.08888.00]
The coastal zone of northeastern Brazil is characterized by intense human activities and by large settlements and also experiences high soil losses that can contribute to environmental damage. Therefore, it is necessary to build an integrated modeling-forecasting system for rainfall-runoff erosion that assesses plans for water availability and sediment yield that can be conceived and implemented. In this work, we present an evaluation of an integrated modeling system for a basin located in this region with a relatively low predictability of seasonal rainfall and a small area (600 km(2)). The National Center for Environmental Predictions - NCEP's Regional Spectral Model (RSM) nested within the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies - CPTEC's Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) were investigated in this study, and both are addressed in the simulation work. The rainfall analysis shows that: (1) the dynamic downscaling carried out by the regional RSM model approximates the frequency distribution of the daily observed data set although errors were detected in the magnitude and timing (anticipation of peaks, for example) at the daily scale, (2) an unbiased precipitation forecast seemed to be essential for use of the results in hydrological models, and (3) the information directly extracted from the global model may also be useful. The simulated runoff and reservoir-stored volumes are strongly linked to rainfall, and their estimation accuracy was significantly improved at the monthly scale, thus rendering the results useful for management purposes. The runoff-erosion forecasting displayed a large sediment yield that was consistent with the predicted rainfall. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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