期刊
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
卷 349, 期 1-2, 页码 115-124出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.10.029
关键词
GLUE; prediction limits; modeling uncertainty; simulation bias
The generalized Likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method is one of the most widely used methods for investigating the uncertainties in the water resources and environmental modeling. However, some researches have found that the percentage of the observations failing within the prediction limits provided by the GLUE is much lower than the given certainty level used to produce these prediction limits in many cases. One possible reason contributing to such a low enveloping efficiency is the fact that, as the GLUE method indiscriminatingly accepts the simulation output of the hydrological model as its input, the errors in the simulation output of the hydrological model will be directly reflected in the prediction limits provided by the GLUE method. So, it is suggested in this paper to modify the original GLUE methodology by applying a new procedure designed to at least partially correct the simulation/prediction of the hydrological model prior to the derivation of the prediction limits at each time step, in an attempt to improve the efficiency of the GLUE prediction limits in enveloping the real-world observations. To test this simple concept, both the original GLUE and the suggested modified GLUE methods have been employed to produce the prediction limits of runoff on two different catchments. In terms of the containing ratio, i.e. the percentage of the observed data bracketed by the respective runoff prediction limits, the modified GLUE method has shown substantial improvements over the original method, in both the calibration and the verification periods. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据