Great Lakes total phosphorus revisited: 1. Loading analysis and update (1994-2008)

Phosphorus load estimates have been updated for all of the Great Lakes with an emphasis on lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron and Ontario for 1994-2008. Lake Erie phosphorus loads have been kept current with previous work and for completeness are reported here. A combination of modeling and data analysis is employed to evaluate whether target loads established by the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA, 1978, Annex 3) have been and are currently being met. Data from federal, state, and provincial agencies were assembled and processed to yield annual estimates for all lakes and sources. A mass-balance model was used to check the consistency of loads and to estimate interlake transport. The analysis suggests that the GLWQA target loads have been consistently met for the main bodies of lakes Superior, Michigan and Huron. However, exceedances still persist for Saginaw Bay. For lakes Erie and Ontario, loadings are currently estimated to be at or just under the target (with some notable exceptions). Because interannual variability is high, the target loads have not been met consistently for the lower Great Lakes. The analysis also indicates that, because of decreasing TP concentrations in the lakes, interlake transport of TP has declined significantly since the mid-1970s. Thus, it is important that these changes be included in future assessments of compliance with TP load targets. Finally, detailed tables of the yearly (1994-2008) estimates are provided, as well as annual summaries by lake tributary basin (in Supplementary Information). (C) 2012 International Association for Great Lakes Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.