期刊
JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY
卷 59, 期 214, 页码 195-224出版社
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.3189/2013JoG12J125
关键词
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资金
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) [22244058]
- NASA [NNX11AP39G, NNX-09-AV94G, NNX-10-AI04G, 281945.02.53.02.19]
- US National Science Foundation (NSF) [0531211, 0758274, 0909335]
- Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) [0424589]
- NSF [0909335, ANT-0424589, 1043018, 25-0550-0001, OCE-1202632, CReSIS 0424589]
- US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Office of Biological and Environmental Research
- DOE's Office of Science [DE-AC02-05CH11231, DE-AC05-000R22725]
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Research Technology and Development Program
- Gary Comer Science and Education Foundation
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [25241005, 22101005, 22244058] Funding Source: KAKEN
- NASA [NNX11AP39G, 140002] Funding Source: Federal RePORTER
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP) [1043018, 0531211, 0909335, 1142139, 1155885] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP) [0941678, 0758274] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized.
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