期刊
JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY
卷 58, 期 209, 页码 427-440出版社
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.3189/2012JoG11J177
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资金
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) [20.08821, 22244058]
It is likely that climate change will have a significant impact on the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, contributing to future sea-level rise. Here we present the implementation of the full Stokes model Elmer/Ice for the Greenland ice sheet, which includes a mesh refinement technique in order to resolve fast-flowing ice streams and outlet glaciers. We discuss simulations 100 years into the future, forced by scenarios defined by the SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) community effort. For comparison, the same experiments are also run with the shallow-ice model SICOPOLIS (Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets). We find that Elmer/Ice is similar to 43% more sensitive (exhibits a larger loss of ice-sheet volume relative to the control run) than SICOPOLIS for the ice-dynamic scenario (doubled basal sliding), but similar to 61% less sensitive for the direct global warming scenario (based on the A1B moderate-emission scenario for greenhouse gases). The scenario with combined A1B global warming and doubled basal sliding forcing produces a Greenland contribution to sea-level rise of similar to 15 cm for Elmer/Ice and similar to 12 cm for SICOPOLIS over the next 100 years.
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