期刊
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
卷 117, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2012JD017597
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资金
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS)-Climate via a CMIP5 grant
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/H024409/1, ncas10009] Funding Source: researchfish
- NERC [NE/H024409/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Trends in the position of the DJF Austral jet have been analyzed for multimodel ensemble simulations of a subset of high-and low-top models for the periods 1960-2000, 2000-2050, and 2050-2098 under the CMIP5 historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Comparison with ERA-Interim, CFSR and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows that the DJF and annual mean jet positions in CMIP5 models are equatorward of reanalyses for the 1979-2006 mean. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the mean jet position in the high-top models moves 3 degrees poleward of its 1860-1900 position by 2098, compared to just over 2 degrees for the low-top models. Changes in jet position are linked to changes in the meridional temperature gradient. Compared to low-top models, the high-top models predict greater warming in the tropical upper troposphere due to increased greenhouse gases for all periods considered: up to 0.28 K/decade more in the period 2050-2098 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Larger polar lower-stratospheric cooling is seen in high-top models: -1.64 K/decade compared to -1.40 K/decade in the period 1960-2000, mainly in response to ozone depletion, and -0.41 K/decade compared to -0.12 K/decade in the period 2050-2098, mainly in response to increases in greenhouse gases. Analysis suggests that there may be a linear relationship between the trend in jet position and meridional temperature gradient, even under strong forcing. There were no clear indications of an approach to a geometric limit on the absolute magnitude of the poleward shift by 2100.
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