Evaluation of mobile source emission trends in the United States

A fuel-based approach is used to estimate exhaust emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from mobile sources in the United States for the years 1996-2006. Source categories considered include on-road and off-road gasoline and diesel engines. Pollutant emissions for each mobile source category were estimated by combining fuel consumption with emission factors expressed per unit of fuel burned. Over the 10-year time period that is the focus of this study, sales of gasoline and diesel fuel intended for on-road use increased by 15 and 43%, respectively. Diesel fuel use by off-road equipment increased by similar to 20% over the same time period. Growth in fuel consumption offset some of the reductions in pollutant emission factors that occurred during this period. For NOx, there have been dramatic (factor of 2) decreases in emission factors for on-road gasoline engines between 1996 and 2006. In contrast, diesel NOx emission factors decreased more gradually. Exhaust PM2.5 emission factors appear to have decreased for most engine categories, but emission uncertainties are large for this pollutant. Diesel engines appear to be the dominant mobile source of both NOx and PM2.5; the diesel share of total NOx has increased over time as gasoline engine emissions have declined. Comparing fuel-based emission estimates with U. S. Environmental Protection Agency's national emission inventory led to the following conclusions: (1) total emissions of NOx and PM2.5 estimated by two different methods were similar, (2) source contributions to these totals differ significantly, with higher relative contributions coming from on-road diesel engines in this study.