Does the Incidence of Adenocarcinoma of the Esophagus and Gastric Cardia Continue to Rise in the Twenty-First Century?-a SEER Database Analysis

The rising incidence and histological change to adenocarcinoma in esophageal cancer over the past four decades has been among the most dramatic changes ever observed in human cancer. Recent reports have suggested that its increasing incidence may have plateaued over the past decade. Our aim was to examine the latest overall and stage-specific trends in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma. We used the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database of the National Cancer Institute to identify all patients with adenocarcinoma of the esophagus and gastric cardia between 1973 and 2009. Both overall and stage-specific trends in incidence were analyzed using joinpoint regression analysis. The overall incidence of adenocarcinoma of the esophagus and the gastric cardia increased from 13.4 per million in 1973 to 51.4 per million in 2009, a nearly 400 % increase. Jointpoint analysis demonstrated that the yearly increase in incidence has slowed somewhat from 1.27 per million before 1987 to 0.97 between 1987 and 1997 and 0.65 after 1997. Stage-specific analysis suggests that the incidence of noninvasive cancer has actually declined after 2003 with a yearly decrease of 0.22. The percentage of patients diagnosed with in situ cancer declined after 2000 and remained under 2.5 % through the study period. The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma continues to rise in the USA. The percentage of patients diagnosed with in situ cancer has declined in the twenty-first century.