Large-time evolution of statistical moments of wind-wave fields

We study the long-term evolution of weakly nonlinear random gravity water wave fields developing with and without wind forcing. The focus of the work is on deriving, from first principles, the evolution of the departure of the field statistics from Gaussianity. Higher-order statistical moments of elevation (skewness and kurtosis) are used as a measure of this departure. Non-Gaussianity of a weakly nonlinear random wave field has two components. The first is due to nonlinear wave wave interactions. We refer to this component as 'dynamic', since it is linked to wave field evolution. The other component is due to bound harmonics. It is non-zero for every wave field with finite amplitude, contributes both to skewness and kurtosis of gravity water waves and can be determined entirely from the instantaneous spectrum of surface elevation. The key result of the work, supported both by direct numerical simulation (DNS) and by the analysis of simulated and experimental (JONSWAP) spectra, is that in generic situations of a broadband random wave field the dynamic contribution to kurtosis is small in absolute value, and negligibly small compared with the bound harmonics component. Therefore, the latter dominates, and both skewness and kurtosis can be obtained directly from the instantaneous wave spectra. Thus, the departure of evolving wave fields from Gaussianity can be obtained from evolving wave spectra, complementing the capability of forecasting spectra and capitalizing on the existing methodology. We find that both skewness and kurtosis are significant for typical oceanic waves; the non-zero positive kurtosis implies a tangible increase of freak wave probability. For random wave fields generated by steady or slowly varying wind and for swell the derived large-time asymptotics of skewness and kurtosis predict power law decay of the moments. The exponents of these laws are determined by the degree of homogeneity of the interaction coefficients. For all self-similar regimes the kurtosis decays twice as fast as the skewness. These formulae complement the known large-time asymptotics for spectral evolution prescribed by the Hasselmann equation. The results are verified by the DNS of random wave fields based on the Zakharov equation. The predicted asymptotic behaviour is shown to be very robust: it holds both for steady and gusty winds.