期刊
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
卷 112, 期 -, 页码 1-9出版社
ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.06.039
关键词
Climate change; Integrated modelling; Sensitivity analysis; Urbanisation; Wastewater system; Water quality
Climate change and urbanisation are key factors affecting the future of water quality and quantity in urbanised catchments and are associated with significant uncertainty. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impacts of climate change and urbanisation on the receiving water quality in the context of an Integrated Urban Wastewater System (IUWS) in the UK. The impacts of intervening system operational control parameters are also investigated. Impact is determined by a detailed modelling study using both local and global sensitivity analysis methods together with correlation analysis. The results obtained from the case-study analysed clearly demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanisation is likely to lead to worsening river water quality in terms of both frequency and magnitude of breaching threshold dissolved oxygen and ammonium concentrations. The results obtained also reveal the key climate change and urbanisation parameters that have the largest negative impact as well as the most responsive IUWS operational control parameters including major dependencies between all these parameters. This information can be further utilised to adapt future IUWS operation and/or design which, in turn, should make these systems more resilient to future climate and urbanisation changes. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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