期刊
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
卷 90, 期 11, 页码 3272-3282出版社
ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.05.019
关键词
Infrastructure; Interdependency; Extended Petri net; Fragility curves; Flood hazard; Markov Chain; Emergency management
资金
- Natural Science and Engineering Research Council Canada (NSERC)
- Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada (PSEPC)
This paper presents a new kind of integrated modeling method for simulating the vulnerability of a critical infrastructure for a hazard and the subsequent interdependencies among the interconnected infrastructures. The developed method has been applied to a case study of a network of hydroelectricity generating infrastructures, e.g., water storage concrete gravity dam, penstock, power plant and transformer substation. The modeling approach is based on the fragility curves development with Monte Carlo simulation based structural-hydraulic modeling, flood frequency analysis, stochastic Petri net (SPN) modeling, and Markov Chain analysis. A certain flood level probability can be predicted from flood frequency analysis, and the most probable damage condition for this hazard can be simulated from the developed fragility curves of the dam. Consequently, the resulting interactions among the adjacent infrastructures can be quantified with SPN analysis; corresponding Markov Chain analysis simulates the long term probability matrix of infrastructure failures. The obtained results are quite convincing to prove the novel contribution of this research to the field of infrastructure interdependency analysis which might serve as a decision making tool for flood related emergency response and management. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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