期刊
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
卷 90, 期 11, 页码 3401-3409出版社
ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.05.010
关键词
Choice experiments; Diving; Economic valuation; Fishing; Hypothetical bias; Recreation; Risk; Stated preferences; Survey design; Uncertainty
资金
- David and Lucile Packard Foundation
- Tinker Foundation
- Moore Family Foundation
- Robins Family Foundation
- World Wildlife Fund and Conservation International
Stated-preference surveys for the economic valuation of environmental resources typically assume no uncertainty in the hypothetical valuation scenarios. However, the outcomes of environmental policies are uncertain. We explored the effects of including information on probabilities of attribute improvement and provision in choice experiments. Our results suggest that stating explicitly a high probability for the occurrence of the valuation scenario can improve the goodness of fit of choice models and the consistency of choices. As the general public becomes more aware of the uncertainty of environmental outcomes under global change, omitting information on scenario risk may contribute to hypothetical bias and impair the validity of stated-preference valuations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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