Bayesian probabilistic inference for nonparametric damage detection of structures

This paper presents a Bayesian hypothesis testing-based probabilistic assessment method for nonparametric damage detection of building structures, considering the uncertainties in both experimental results and model prediction. A dynamic fuzzy wavelet neural network method is employed as a nonparametric system identification model to predict the structural responses for damage evaluation. A Bayes factor evaluation metric is derived based on Bayes' theorem and Gaussian distribution assumption of the difference between the experimental data and model prediction. The metric provides quantitative measure for assessing the accuracy of system identification and the state of global health of structures. The probability density function of the Bayes factor is constructed using the statistics of the difference of response quantities and Monte Carlo simulation technique to address the uncertainties in both experimental data and model prediction. The methodology is investigated with five damage scenarios of a four-story benchmark building. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed methodology provides an effective approach for quantifying the damage confidence in the structural condition assessment.