期刊
JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
卷 182, 期 1, 页码 27-44出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA
DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.04.006
关键词
Conditional independence; Empirical likelihood; Granger causality; Local smoothed bootstrap; Nonlinear dependence; Nonparametric regression; U-statistics
资金
- Singapore Ministry of Education for Academic Research Fund [MOE2012-T2-2-021]
We construct two classes of smoothed empirical likelihood ratio tests for the conditional independence hypothesis by writing the null hypothesis as an infinite collection of conditional moment restrictions indexed by a nuisance parameter. One class is based on the COP; another is based on smoother functions. We show that the test statistics are asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives. We also show that the tests possess an asymptotic optimality property in terms of average power. Simulations suggest that the tests are well behaved in finite samples. Applications to some economic and financial time series indicate that our tests reveal some interesting nonlinear causal relations which the traditional linear Granger causality test fails to detect. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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