期刊
JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
卷 161, 期 2, 页码 284-303出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA
DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.12.010
关键词
Realized variance; Volatility forecasting; Forecast comparison
资金
- Leverhulme Trust [F/0004/AF]
This paper presents new methods for comparing the accuracy of estimators of the quadratic variation of a price process. I provide conditions under which the relative accuracy of competing estimators can be consistently estimated (as T -> infinity), and show that forecast evaluation tests may be adapted to the problem of ranking these estimators. The proposed methods avoid making specific assumptions about microstructure noise, and facilitate comparisons of estimators that would be difficult using methods from the extant literature, such as those based on different sampling schemes. An application to high frequency IBM data between 1996 and 2007 illustrates the new methods. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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