Prediction of disease complication occurrence in Crohn's disease using phenotype and genotype parameters at diagnosis

Background and aims: Complications associated with Crohn's disease (CD) are common and influence treatment decisions and outcomes. Appropriate early treatment may offer a therapeutic advantage to patients. The aim of our study was to indentify predictive factors for occurrence of complications at the time of CD diagnosis. Methods: The study population consisted of 269 CD patients treated during a ten year period. Risk factors compared between complicated and non-complicated disease included phenotypical characteristics, disease classification and the presence of NOD2/CARD15 mutations and single nucleotide polymorphisms in selected autophagy and phagosome genes. \Results: Complete data was obtained for 146 patients with an average follow up of 12 years. Sixty five patients (44%) developed a complication during follow up. The only independent risk factors associated with developing a complication were smoking and male gender. There was no association between developing complications and the presence of selected SNPs (P=0.07 for Tyrosine residue on both alleles in NCF4 SNP rs4821544 and P=0.06 for a Guanine residue on both alleles in ATG16L SNP rs2241880). Multivariate analysis using a backwards logistic regression model left only male gender as an independent statistically significant association with complicated disease (OR 2.6017, 95% CI: 1.17 to 5.75). The median time to developing a complication was 4 years, and the most common complication was the need for surgical intervention (54%). Conclusions: In the present study, a risk factor for developing CD complication was male gender. Further studies are warranted to assess additional risk factors and how such findings should affect therapy. (C) 2011 European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.