How well will ton-scale dark matter direct detection experiments constrain minimal supersymmetry?

Weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) are amongst the most interesting dark matter (DM) candidates. Many DM candidates naturally arise in theories beyond the standard model (SM) of particle physics, like weak-scale supersymmetry (SUSY). Experiments aim to detect WIMPs by scattering, annihilation or direct production, and thereby determine the underlying theory to which they belong, along with its parameters. Here we examine the prospects for further constraining the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) with future ton-scale direct detection experiments. We consider ton-scale extrapolations of three current experiments: CDMS, XENON and COUPP, with 1000 kg-years of raw exposure each. We assume energy resolutions, energy ranges and efficiencies similar to the current versions of the experiments, and include backgrounds at target levels. Our analysis is based on full likelihood constructions for the experiments. We also take into account present uncertainties on hadronic matrix elements for neutralino-quark couplings, and on halo model parameters. We generate synthetic data based on four benchmark points and scan over the CMSSM parameter space using nested sampling. We construct both Bayesian posterior PDFs and frequentist profile likelihoods for the model parameters, as well as the mass and various cross-sections of the lightest neutralino. Future ton-scale experiments will help substantially in constraining supersymmetry, especially when results of experiments primarily targeting spin-dependent nuclear scattering are combined with those directed more toward spin-independent interactions.