期刊
JOURNAL OF CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
卷 139, 期 3, 页码 321-330出版社
ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000575
关键词
Australia; Cost overrun; Distribution fitting; Probability; Probability distribution
The statistical characteristics of cost overruns experienced from contract award in 276 Australian construction and engineering projects were analyzed. The skewness and kurtosis values of the cost overruns are computed to determine if the empirical distribution of the data follows a normal distribution. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and chi-squared nonparametric tests are used to determine the goodness of fit of the selected probability distributions. A three-parameter Frechet probability function is found to describe the behavior of cost overruns and provide the best overall distribution fit. The Frechet distribution is then used to calculate the probability of a cost overrun being experienced. The statistical characteristics of contract size and cost overruns were also analyzed. The Cauchy (
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