The SAMPL2 blind prediction challenge: introduction and overview

The interactions between a molecule and the aqueous environment underpin any process that occurs in solution, from simple chemical reactions to protein-ligand binding to protein aggregation. Fundamental measures of the interaction between molecule and aqueous phase, such as the transfer energy between gas phase and water or the energetic difference between two tautomers of a molecule in solution, remain nontrivial to predict accurately using current computational methods. SAMPL2 represents the third annual blind prediction of transfer energies, and the first time tautomer ratios were included in the challenge. Over 60 sets of predictions were submitted, and each participant also attempted to estimate the error in their predictions, a task that proved difficult for most. The results of this blind assessment of the state of the field for transfer energy and tautomer ratio prediction both indicate where the field is performing well and point out flaws in current methods.