期刊
JOURNAL OF CLINICAL PERIODONTOLOGY
卷 41, 期 9, 页码 837-845出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/jcpe.12278
关键词
antibiotics; chronic periodontitis; multi-state Markov models; periodontal therapy
资金
- University of Oslo
- National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research [DE 12861]
- European Commission [FP7-HEALTH-306029]
Aim: To understand degeneration of healthy sites and identify factors associated with disease progression in patients with chronic periodontitis. Material and Methods: Data on healthy sites from 163 American and Swedish subjects were analysed using two-three-state (health, gingivitis, chronic periodontitis) Markov models based on bleeding on probing (BOP), and either clinical attachment level (CAL) + BOP or pocket depth (PD) + BOP. Results: In 2 years, 10% (CAL + BOP) and 3% (PD + BOP) of healthy sites developed chronic periodontitis. On average, healthy sites remained healthy for 32 months before transiting in both models. Most transitions (87-97%) from health were to the gingivitis state. The expected duration of the gingivitis lesion was 4-5 months and sites recovered with a high probability (96-98%). Disease severity as measured by number of sites with CAL/PD > 4 mm at baseline and smoking, were associated with fast progression from health to chronic periodontitis within 6 months as were gingival redness in the PD + BOP model only. With age, the rate of disease progression to gingivitis decreased. Conclusion: Transition probabilities for gingivitis and chronic periodontitis were higher with CAL + BOP than with PD + BOP. Smoking and disease severity were significant predictors for fast progression.
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