期刊
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
卷 26, 期 12, 页码 4148-4167出版社
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00534.1
关键词
Climate change; Climate sensitivity; Snow cover
资金
- California Energy Commission (CEC) Public Interest for Energy Research (PIER) program
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's California/Nevada Applications Program [CNAP
- a NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) center]
- Southwest Climate Science Center via the U.S. Geological Survey/Department of Interior
- U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research [DE-SC0004956]
- NOAA's Climate Program Office
- U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) [DE-SC0004956] Funding Source: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
The effect of human-induced climate warming on different snow measures in the western United States is compared by calculating the time required to achieve a statistically significant linear trend in the different measures, using time series derived from regionally downscaled global climate models. The measures examined include the water content of the spring snowpack, total cold-season snowfall, fraction of winter precipitation that falls as snow, length of the snow season, and fraction of cold-season precipitation retained in the spring snowpack, as well as temperature and precipitation. Various stakeholders may be interested in different sets of these variables. It is found that temperature and the fraction of winter precipitation that falls as snow exhibit significant trends first, followed in 5-10 years by the fraction of cold-season precipitation retained in the spring snowpack, and later still by the water content of the spring snowpack. Change in total cold-season snowfall is least detectable of all the measures, since it is strongly linked to precipitation, which has large natural variability and only a weak anthropogenic trend in the western United States. Averaging over increasingly wider areas monotonically increases the signal-to-noise ratio of the 1950-2025 linear trend from 0.15 to 0.37, depending on the snow measure.
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