期刊
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
卷 24, 期 7, 页码 1985-2002出版社
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3447.1
关键词
-
资金
- Gary Comer Science and Education Foundation
- Australian Research Council [FF0668679]
- NCAR
- NSF
- Australian Research Council [FF0668679] Funding Source: Australian Research Council
In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed as a nested regional climate model to dynamically downscale output from the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR's) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3 and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-NCAR global reanalysis (NNRP). The latter is used for verification of late-twentieth-century climate simulations from the WRF. This analysis finds that the WRF is able to produce precipitation that is more realistic than that from its driving systems (the CCSM and NNRP). It also diagnoses potential issues with and differences between all of the simulations completed. Specifically, the magnitude of heavy 6-h average precipitation events, the frequency distribution, and the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the central United States are greatly improved. Projections from the WRF for late-twenty-first-century precipitation show decreases in average May August (MJJA) precipitation, but increases in the intensity of both heavy precipitation events and rain in general when it does fall. A decrease in the number of 6-h periods with rainfall accounts for the overall decrease in average precipitation. The WRF also shows an increase in the frequency of very heavy to extreme 6-h average events, but a decrease in the frequency of all events lighter than those over the central United States. Overall, projections from this study suggest an increase in the frequency of both floods and droughts during the warm season in the central United States.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据