期刊
NATURE GEOSCIENCE
卷 8, 期 6, 页码 433-440出版社
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2424
关键词
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资金
- Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Research Award ARC [DE120102645]
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Climate System Science
- Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme [GA01101]
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/M006123/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- NERC [NE/M005828/1, NE/M006123/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Australian Research Council [DE120102645] Funding Source: Australian Research Council
A powerful influence on the weather that we experience on the ground can be exerted by the stratosphere. This highly stratified layer of Earth's atmosphere is found 10 to 50 kilometres above the surface and therefore above the weather systems that develop in the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere. The troposphere is dynamically coupled to fluctuations in the speed of the circumpolar westerly jet that forms in the winter stratosphere: a strengthening circumpolar jet causes a poleward shift in the storm tracks and tropospheric jet stream, whereas a weakening jet causes a shift towards the equator. Following a weakening of the stratospheric jet, impacts on the surface weather include a higher likelihood of extremely low temperature over northern Europe and the eastern USA. Eddy feedbacks in the troposphere amplify the surface impacts, but the mechanisms underlying these dynamics are not fully understood. The same dynamical relationships act at very different timescales, ranging from daily variations to longer-term climate trends, suggesting a single unifying mechanism across timescales. Ultimately, an improved understanding of the dynamical links between the stratosphere and troposphere is expected to lead to improved confidence in both long-range weather forecasts and climate change projections.
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