Impact of Urban Growth on Surface Climate: A Case Study in Oran, Algeria

The authors develop a land use map discriminating urban surfaces from other cover types over a semiarid region in North Africa and use it in a land surface model to assess the impact of urbanized land on surface energy, water, and carbon balances. Unlike in temperate climates where urbanization creates a marked heat island effect, this effect is not strongly marked in semiarid regions. During summer, the urban class results in an additional warming of 1.45 degrees C during daytime and 0.81 degrees C at night relative to that simulated for needleleaf trees under similar climate conditions. Seasonal temperatures show that urban areas are warmer than their surrounding areas during summer and slightly cooler in winter. The hydrological cycle is practically shut down'' during summer and is characterized by relatively large amounts of runoff in winter. The authors estimate the annual amount of carbon uptake to be 1.94 million metric tons with only 11.9% assimilated during the rainy season. However, if urbanization expands to reach 50% of the total area excluding forests, the annual total carbon uptake will decline by 35% and the July mean temperature would increase only 0.10 degrees C relative to the current situation. In contrast, if urbanization expands to 50% of the total land excluding forests and croplands but all short vegetation is replaced by native broadleaf deciduous trees, the annual carbon uptake would increase by 39% and the July mean temperature would decrease by 0.9 degrees C relative to the current configuration. These results provide guidelines for urban planners and land use managers and indicate possibilities for mitigating the urban heat.