4.6 Article

Typhoon damage assessment model and analysis in Taiwan

期刊

NATURAL HAZARDS
卷 79, 期 1, 页码 497-510

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SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1858-8

关键词

Typhoon disaster; Correlation analysis; Disaster assessment model; Exponential regression analysis; Vulnerability

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Typhoons are one of the world's most frequently occurring natural disasters that cause severe damage. The losses caused by typhoons are not only related to the strength and structure of a particular typhoon, but also to the population density, home range, and type of economy in the affected area. Taiwan is centrally situated in the main path arc of typhoons generated in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. On average, 3-4 typhoons approach or make landfall in Taiwan yearly. The associated strong winds, violent rains, landslides, and storm surges or upwelling in coastal areas often catastrophically impact the citizens of Taiwan and cause severe damage to the national economy. Losses may amount to billions, or even tens of billions of New Taiwan Dollars. Due to the limitations imposed by the lack of complete data in earlier years, this study focuses on those typhoons with complete records which landed and affected Taiwan from 1965 to 2004. This study considers meteorological indicators including maximum daily rainfall, maximum central wind speeds, lowest central pressure, radius of class seven winds, and period during CWB issued land and sea warning, as well as disaster indicators that reflect damages resulting from typhoons such as the numbers of dead or missing persons, totally destroyed houses, and actual amounts of crop losses. This study aims to statistically analyze the meteorological and disaster indicators, and build a disaster assessment model which allows for a quantified assessment to be conducted. This would enable the relevant government departments to immediately assess or evaluate the disaster upon the receipt of predicted or actual data from a particular typhoon. Additionally, this study evaluated precautionary building principles in terms of the positive effect they have on improving disaster management.

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