Dispersion in time and space affect mating success and Allee effects in invading gypsy moth populations

1. Understanding why invading populations sometimes fail to establish is of considerable relevance to the development of strategies for managing biological invasions. 2. Newly arriving populations tend to be sparse and are often influenced by Allee effects. Mating failure is a typical cause of Allee effects in low-density insect populations, and dispersion of individuals in space and time can exacerbate mate-location failure in invading populations. 3. Here we evaluate the relative importance of dispersal and sexual asynchrony as contributors to Allee effects in invading populations by adopting as a case study the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.), an important insect defoliator for which considerable demographic information is available. 4. We used release-recapture experiments to parameterize a model that describes probabilities that males locate females along various spatial and temporal offsets between male and female adult emergence. 5. Based on these experimental results, we developed a generalized model of mating success that demonstrates the existence of an Allee threshold, below which introduced gypsy moth populations are likely to go extinct without any management intervention.