期刊
MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW
卷 143, 期 2, 页码 524-535出版社
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00227.1
关键词
-
资金
- NOAA [NA14OAR4830101]
- NOAA MAPP Program [NA12OAR4310075]
- ONR [N00014-12-10450]
While tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, in particular TC genesis, remains very challenging, accurate prediction of TCs is critical for timely preparedness and mitigation. Using a new version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, the authors studied the predictability of two destructive landfall TCs: Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Results demonstrate that the geneses of these two TCs are highly predictable with the maximum prediction lead time reaching 11 days. The beyond weather time scale predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is primarily attributed to the model's skillful prediction of the intraseasonal Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the westward propagation of easterly waves. Meanwhile, the landfall location and time can be predicted one week ahead for Sandy's U. S landfall, and two weeks ahead for Haiyan's landing in the Philippines. The success in predicting Sandy and Haiyan, together with low false alarms, indicates the potential of using the GFDL coupled model for extended-range predictions of TCs.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据