期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE
卷 18, 期 8, 页码 921-931出版社
CSIRO PUBLISHING
DOI: 10.1071/WF07123
关键词
geographic information systems; ignition occurrence; logistic regression; spatial patterns
类别
资金
- European Commission [FP6-018505]
- Instituto de Financiamento da Agricultura e Pescas
Portugal has the highest density of wildfire ignitions among southern European countries. The ability to predict the spatial patterns of ignitions constitutes an important tool for managers, helping to improve the effectiveness of fire prevention, detection and firefighting resources allocation. In this study, we analyzed 127 490 ignitions that occurred in Portugal during a 5-year period. We used logistic regression models to predict the likelihood of ignition occurrence, using a set of potentially explanatory variables, and produced an ignition risk map for the Portuguese mainland. Results show that population density, human accessibility, land cover and elevation are important determinants of spatial distribution of fire ignitions. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to predict the spatial patterns of ignitions at the national level with good accuracy and using a small number of easily obtainable variables, which can be useful in decision-making for wildfire management.
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