期刊
MOLECULAR ECOLOGY
卷 24, 期 20, 页码 5078-5083出版社
WILEY-BLACKWELL
DOI: 10.1111/mec.13381
关键词
divergence; false positive; gene flow; isolation with migration
资金
- NIGMS NIH HHS [R01 GM078204] Funding Source: Medline
The population genetic study of divergence is often carried out using a Bayesian genealogy sampler, like those implemented in ima2 and related programs, and these analyses frequently include a likelihood ratio test of the null hypothesis of no migration between populations. Cruickshank and Hahn (2014, Molecular Ecology, 23, 3133-3157) recently reported a high rate of false-positive test results with ima2 for data simulated with small numbers of loci under models with no migration and recent splitting times. We confirm these findings and discover that they are caused by a failure of the assumptions underlying likelihood ratio tests that arises when using marginal likelihoods for a subset of model parameters. We also show that for small data sets, with little divergence between samples from two populations, an excellent fit can often be found by a model with a low migration rate and recent splitting time and a model with a high migration rate and a deep splitting time.
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