期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION ECONOMICS
卷 111, 期 2, 页码 389-408出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2007.01.009
关键词
spare parts; intermittent demand; forecasting; trend
The challenge of accurately forecasting demand for spare parts is due to the intermittent nature of their demand. This study compares a recent modification of Croston's method and a method based on Holt's double exponential smoothing taking the firm's competitive priorities into consideration. Wright's modification of Holt's method is presented as a viable alternative when forecasting demand for spares especially when trend is present. Results indicate that firms focusing on minimizing inventory levels as a priority should consider forecasting using the Modified Croston's method. If their priority is high customer service, then the modified Holt's method is superior. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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