Assessing contributory factors in potential systemic accidents using AcciMap and integrated fuzzy ISM - MICMAC approach

The Rasmussen's AcciMap approach is an important system thinking method widely used to guide accident analysis and assess potential contributory factors. However, the AcciMap approach cannot quantify interaction relationships among contributory factors and the hierarchical representation of these factors, and it also cannot identify the dominant contributory factors in potential systemic accident. These limitations influence applications of the AcciMap method. The purpose of this paper is to propose a new AcciMap approach combining fuzzy Interpretive Structural Modeling (fuzzy ISM) and Matrix of Cross Impact Multiplications Applied to Classification (MICMAC) to overcome the limitations of current AcciMap approach. Firstly, the fuzzy ISM method is adopted to determine the interaction relationships among contributory factors and the hierarchical representation of these factors. Secondly, the MICMAC method integrated with fuzzy ISM is applied to classify the contributory factors into different categories on the basis of their driving and dependence power values. Then, the degree of a vertex is introduced into the MICMAC approach to determine the dominant contributory factors in potential systemic accident. Finally, the proposed extended AcciMap approach is applied to a ship grounding accident to demonstrate its feasibility, and then a sensitivity analysis is also performed to validate the effectiveness of the new AcciMap approach.