期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GYNECOLOGICAL CANCER
卷 23, 期 2, 页码 264-267出版社
LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS
DOI: 10.1097/IGC.0b013e31827b8844
关键词
Borderline ovarian tumors; CA125; Survival
资金
- Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital Research Foundation, Brisbane, Australia
Objective: This study aimed to develop a nomogram predicting the probability of relapse in individual patients who have surgery for borderline ovarian tumors (BOTs). Methods: This retrospective study included 801 patients with BOT diagnosed between 1985 and 2008 at 6 gynecologic cancer centers. We analyzed covariates that were associated with the risk of developing a recurrence by multivariate logistic regression. We identified a parsimonious model by backward stepwise logistic regression. The 5 most significant or clinically important variables associated with an increased risk of recurrence were included in the nomogram. The nomogram was internally validated. Results: Fifty-one patients developed a recurrence after a median observation period of 57 months. Age at diagnosis, the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, cell type, preoperative serum CA125, and type of surgery (radical vs fertility-sparing) were associated with an increased risk of recurrence and were used in the nomogram. Bootstrap-corrected concordance index was 0.67 and showed good calibration. Conclusions: Five factors that are commonly available to clinicians treating patients with BOT were used in the development of a nomogram to predict the risk of recurrence. The nomogram will be useful to counsel patients about risk-reduction strategies to minimize the risk of recurrence or to inform patients about a very low risk of recurrence making intensive follow-up unwarranted.
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