Spatiotemporal simulation and risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on cellular automata

Chapinghe Barrier Lake was the largest among the barrier lakes formed in the aftermath of the magnitude 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake. A rapid quantitative method for the evaluation of potential risk to lives and properties downstream was of the utmost importance for disaster management. The proposed method is based on spatiotemporal simulation using different dam-break scenarios and downstream hazard distribution analyses. This article adopts a cellular automata (CA) model to synthetically integrate multiple sets of geographic layers, including those containing the models needed for routine computation of flood hazards and those needed for vulnerability analysis of the people living downstream. A CA-based simulation and analysis method integrating hydrologic/hydraulic mechanisms is herein introduced, and relevant techniques are investigated. Our prototype experiment demonstrates that the proposed CA-based flood-hazard model can be conveniently integrated into a digital earth system and can further provide real-time simulation analyses of dam-break flood risks.