Seasonality of rotavirus disease in the tropics: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Methods Using linear regression models that account for serial correlation between months, monthly rotavirus incidence was significantly negatively correlated with temperature, rainfall and relative humidity in 65, 55 and 60 of studies, respectively. We carried out pooled analyses using a generalized estimating equation (GEE) that accounts for correlation from between-study variation and serial correlation between months within a given study. Results For every 1C (1.8F) increase in mean temperature, 1 cm (0.39 in.) increase in mean monthly rainfall, and 1 increase in relative humidity (22) this analysis showed reductions in rotavirus incidence of 10 (95 CI: 613), 1 (95 CI: 01), and 3 (95 CI:05), respectively. Conclusions On the basis of the evidence, we conclude that rotavirus responds to changes in climate in the tropics, with the highest number of infections found at the colder and drier times of the year.