期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
卷 31, 期 5, 页码 696-703出版社
WILEY-BLACKWELL
DOI: 10.1002/joc.2097
关键词
Baltic Sea; river runoff; climate reconstruction; climate change; atmospheric circulation; statistical analysis; freshwater
资金
- University of Gothenburg
- Swedish Research Council [G 600-335/2001]
In this paper we reconstructed river runoff to the Baltic Sea since 1500 using temperature and atmospheric circulation indices, showing the important atmospheric processes for river runoff in different regions. Runoff appears to be strongly linked to temperature, wind and rotational circulation components in the northern region and Gulf of Finland, but more associated with rotational and deformation circulation components in the south. No significant long-term change has been detected in total river runoff to the Baltic Sea for 500 years, although decadal and regional variability is large. Analysis of runoff sensitivity to temperature shows that the south region may become drier with rising air temperatures. This is in contrast to the north region and Gulf of Finland where warmer temperatures are associated with more river runoff. Over the past 500 years the total river runoff to the Baltic Sea has decreased by 3% (450 m(3)/s) per degree Celsius increase. Copyright (C) 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
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