期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
卷 31, 期 1, 页码 44-56出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/joc.2055
关键词
climatic trend analysis; nonparametric tests; seasonal rainfall; Calabria
In order to investigate the behaviour of climatic and hydrological variables, several statistical and stochastic techniques are currently applied to time series. In the present study a statistical analysis of annual and seasonal precipitation has been performed over 109 cumulated rainfall series with more than 50 years of data observed in a region of Southern Italy (Calabria). Trend analyses have been made by using both nonparametric (Mann-Kendall test) and parametric (linear regression analysis) procedures. The long historical series of monthly rainfall data employed in this work have been previously processed through a pre-whitening (PW) technique in order to reduce the autocorrelation of rainfall series and its effects on outcomes of trend detection. The application of the above mentioned procedures has shown a decreasing trend for annual and winter-autumn rainfall and an increasing trend for summer precipitation. Moreover the Mann-Whitney test has been used to evidence the possible change points in the data. The higher percentages of rainfall series show possible year changes during decade 1960-1970 for almost all of the temporal aggregation rainfall. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society
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