The annual cycle of heavy precipitation across the United Kingdom: a model based on extreme value statistics

The annual cycle of extreme I-day precipitation events across the UK is investigated by developing a statistical model and fitting it to data from 689 rain gauges A generalized extrerne-value distribution (GEV) is fit to the time series of monthly maxima, across all months of the year simultaneously, by approximating, the annual cycles of the location and scale parameters by harmonic functions, while keeping the shape parameter constant throughout the year We average the shape parameter of neighbouring rain gauges to decrease uncertainties. and also Interpolate values of all model parameters to give complete coverage of (lie UK. The model reveals distinct spatial patterns the estimated parameters The annual mean of the location and scale parameter is highly correlated with orography. The annual cycle of the location parameter is strong in the northwest UK (peaking in late autumn or winter) and in East Anglia (where it peaks HI late summer), and low in the Midlands The annual cycle of the scale parameter exhibits a similar pattern with strongest amplitudes in East Anglia The spatial patterns of the annual cycle phase suggest that they are linked to the dominance of frontal precipitation for generating extreme precipitation in the west and convective precipitation in the southeast of the UK The shape parameter shows a gradient from Positive Values in the east to negative values in some areas of the west We also estimate 10-year and 100-year return levels at each rain gauge, and interpolated across the UK Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society