期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
卷 28, 期 13, 页码 1723-1734出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/joc.1623
关键词
Ethiopia; climate; trend analysis; hydrology; precipitation; rainfall distribution
资金
- UNEP/DEWA, South Dakota State University-Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE)
- US Geological Survey/Earth Resources Observation and Science (USGS/EROS)
As a country whose economy is heavily dependent on low-productivity rainfed agriculture, rainfall trends are often cited as one of the more important factors in explaining various socio-economic problems such as food insecurity. Therefore, in order to help policyrnakers and developers make more informed decisions, this study investigated the temporal dynamics of rainfall and its spatial distribution within Ethiopia. Changes in rainfall were examined using data from 134 stations in 13 watersheds between 1960 and 2002. The variability and trends in seasonal and annual rainfall were analysed at the watershed scale with data (1) from all available years, and (2) excluding years that lacked observations front at least 25% of the gauges. Similar analyses were also performed at the gauge, regional, and national levels. By regressing annual watershed rainfall on time, results from the one-sample t-test show no significant changes in rainfall for any of the watersheds examined. However, in our regressions of seasonal rainfall averages against time, we found a significant decline in June to September rainfall (i.e. Kiremt) for the Baro-Akobo, Omo-Ghibe, Rift Valley, and Southern Blue Nile watersheds located in the southwestern and central parts of Ethiopia. While the gauge level analysis showed that certain gauge stations experienced recent changes in rainfall, these trends are not necessarily reflected at the watershed or regional levels. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
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