期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
卷 28, 期 7, 页码 881-892出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/joc.1589
关键词
glaciers and climate; mass balance modelling; tropical glaciers
Meteorological and glaciological measurements obtained at 5873 m a.s.l. on Kersten Glacier, a slope glacier on the southern flanks of Kilimanjaro, are used to run a physically-based mass balance model for the period February 2005 to January 2006. This shows that net shortwave radiation is the most variable energy flux at the glacier-atmosphere interface, governed by surface albedo. The majority of the mass loss (similar to 65%) is due to sublimation (direct conversion of snow/ice to water vapour), with melting of secondary importance. Sensitivity experiments reveal that glacier mass balance is 2-4 times more sensitive to a 20% precipitation change than to a 1 degrees C air temperature change. These figures also hold when the model is run with input data representative of a longer term (1979-2004) mean period. Results suggest that a regional-scale moisture projection for the 21st century is crucial to a physically-based prediction of glacier retention on Africa's highest mountain. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society.
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